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The first book of the next crisis.
All economic and financial activities take place across time. Interest coordinates these activities. The story of capitalism is thus the story of interest: the price that individuals, companies and nations pay to borrow money.
In The Price of Time, Edward Chancellor traces the history of interest from its origins in ancient Mesopotamia, through debates about usury in Restoration Britain and John Law ' s ill-fated Mississippi scheme, to the global credit booms of the twenty-first century. We generally assume that high interest rates are harmful, but Chancellor argues that, whenever money is too easy, financial markets become unstable. He takes the story to the present day, when interest rates have sunk lower than at any time in the five millennia since they were first recorded - including the extraordinary appearance of negative rates in Europe and Japan - and highlights how this has contributed to profound economic insecurity and financial fragility.
Chancellor reveals how extremely low interest rates not only create asset price inflation but are also largely responsible for weak economic growth, rising inequality, zombie companies, elevated debt levels and the pensions crises that have afflicted the West in recent years - conditions under which economies cannot possibly thrive. At the same time, easy money in China has inflated an epic real estate bubble, accompanied by the greatest credit and investment boom in history. As the global financial system edges closer to yet another crisis, Chancellor shows that only by understanding interest can we hope to face the challenges ahead.
ยฉ Edward Chancellor 2022 (P) Penguin Audio 2022
Edward Chancellor is the author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation which has been translated into many languages and was a New York Times Book of the Year. After reading history at Cambridge and Oxford, he worked for Lazard Brothers and until 2014 he was a senior member of the asset allocation team at GMO. He is currently a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews and has contributed to the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, MoneyWeek and the New York Review of Books. In 2008, he received the George Polk Award for financial reporting for his article "Ponzi Nation" in Institutional Investor.
Reviews
the book is magisterial in its scope. He describes the reasons for the current distortion of the markets and why wealth and income disparity were so pronounced in the last 20 years. He lays blame on the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world distorting the markets with low interest rates. You'll want to buy this book and get it the first day available. Besides being a first-rate economic historian, Chancellor is also a master wordsmith; almost unique among serious finance books, The Price of Time serves well as bedtime reading. ... More than 20 years ago, Edward Chancellor's Devil Take the Hindmost supplied readers with one of the most engaging and incisive descriptions of financial manias ever written. That was a hard act to follow, but The Price of Time nicely fills the bill; it is a serious work of political economy that is part comprehensive guide to the world financial system's greatest peril and part literary chocolate torte. Well I'll be darned! Chancellor has done the nearly impossible: he has made a potentially dreary topic - interest rates - into a witty, philosophical and highly entertaining story crammed with historical anecdotes starting with the Babylonians and ending yesterday. At the same time the obvious weight and breadth of his research leads us to his important conclusion: for Heaven's Sake leave interest rates to market forces; manipulation by Central Banks leads to chain linked disasters, another of which may well be imminent.Is it possible to write a highly engaging history of the world going back to Hammurabi, unfolding along the way a bitingly comprehensive explanation for its problems today, all told through a single character? Apparently yes. Edward Chancellor has done it, an achievement all the more notable since his drama is built around a character so unheroic on its surface: his "price of time" is interest rates. This is a timely, vitally important and hugely readable book.
a scholarly perspective of the history of interest and credit since their known origins in ancient Mesopotamia ... a rollicking read in comparison with Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century ... The Price of Time is leavened throughout by touches of humour and an eye for historical curiosities drawn from a huge range of sources.
Chancellor's panoptic survey of the history of interest, and what classical economists said about it, will not fail to dazzle a sweeping historical analysis of how our financial system once again became untethered from the world it is supposed to serve. At the heart of such derangement, Chancellor argues, is a single factor: artificially low interest rates. As he reminds us, interest rates are the most important signal in a market-based economy, "the universal price" affecting all others. Interest is best defined as the time value of money, which Chancellor artfully renders as "the price of time." It is the price that informs every key financial decision-saving, spending, investing. Suppressing the rate of interest is a powerful way to boost an economy otherwise bound for recession, but it is a dangerous one. It is to finance what opiates are to medicine, a distortion of perception disguised as a cure. ... Chancellor's learned and engrossing history concludes with a somber warning. Compared with more heavy-handed forms of government intrusion, central bankers' manipulation of interest rates may seem rather innocuous, and it is much less likely to provoke howling objections from ordinary citizens. But more than any other, it threatens the efficiency and integrity of the free-enterprise system. Behind the price of time is the priceless right of freedom. Edward Chancellor argues that low interest rates, of the sort that prevailed since the financial crisis and until this year, are a catastrophic mistake because, as the great financial journalist Walter Bagehot wrote, they lead people to "invest their savings in something impossible - a canal to Kamchatka, a railway to Watchet, a plan for animating the Dead Sea, a corporation for shipping skates to the Torrid Zone". Cryptocurrencies are the Kamchatka canals of today. Their collapse, in Chancellor's view, is just the beginning of a great unravelling. The book is persuasive, perfectly timed and, for a work on such a nerdy subject, gripping. Expand reviews