Behold a Black Horse: Economic Upheaval and Famine

Summary

The third of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse is supposed to bring inflation and famine on an unprecedented scale. But what is the real cause of inflation? What are the real causes of famine? Most famines are the direct results of government’s deliberate decisions. Germany sank into the most severe hyperinflationary period in recorded history after printing 1.3 trillion marks: that translates to about four trillion in today’s dollars. Ironically, that is almost exactly the same amount of money the United States government has printed since 2008. What are the implications for us today? How can one use Bayes’ Theorem in “reverse probability”? Can you form a hypothesis based on experience, common sense, and whatever data are available and then test the hypothesis not by what has happened before, but by what comes after? The theorem has proved its worth, such as in 2012, when it was used to successfully predict the outcome of the US presidential election in all 50 states before the final vote counts were available.